Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — September 2, 2026

Lisa Manwaring • September 2, 2026

The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. While Canada's economic recovery is broadening, a new layer of uncertainty has entered the picture. Here is what happened and what it means for your mortgage.

What the Bank of Canada Said

A More Complex Global Picture

Two significant developments are shaping today's decision. First, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to keep energy prices elevated. Second, trade talks between Canada and the United States have broken down, triggering new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures. Both situations remain fluid and are being watched closely.

Despite these headwinds, the global economy has shown resilience. US growth remains solid, driven by consumer spending and AI investment. The euro area grew stronger than expected in the second quarter. China's economy slowed. Overall, global growth is broadly in line with the Bank's July projections. That said, inflation in most countries remains elevated due to high oil prices and elevated margins for refined energy products.

Financial conditions have tightened since July. Long-term bond yields have moved up globally, including in Canada. The Canadian dollar has appreciated slightly on US dollar weakness.

Canada's Economy Is Recovering

The good news is that Canada's economy delivered a strong second quarter. GDP grew 3.3% after a very weak start to the year. The pickup was broad-based. Consumer spending showed solid gains. Housing activity rebounded after several weak quarters. Exports and business investment were both up sharply.

The labour market has also improved. The unemployment rate edged down to 6.4% in July. That said, demand for labour remains subdued and there is still excess supply in the economy overall.

The Bank's view is that Canada's recovery is broadening. That is a meaningful and positive shift from earlier in the year.

Inflation Remains Elevated

CPI inflation has been hovering around 3% in recent months, largely driven by persistently high gasoline prices tied to the Middle East conflict. The encouraging detail is that inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2% in July, and core inflation measures remained close to 2%. So far, higher energy prices have not spread broadly into other consumer prices.

However, the Bank is watching this carefully. The longer oil prices and elevated refinery margins persist, the greater the risk that energy costs begin feeding into the prices of other goods and services. On top of that, new US tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs could push up costs for some businesses and eventually flow through to consumers.

Why the Bank Held

With the economy and inflation evolving broadly as projected in July, Governing Council agreed to leave the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. However, the Bank was clear that upside risks to inflation have increased, and that new tariffs create additional uncertainty for the growth outlook. The Bank is prepared to adjust monetary policy as conditions evolve and remains committed to keeping inflation under control.

What This Means for Mortgage Holders and Buyers

A rate hold means no immediate change to variable-rate mortgage payments or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) tied to the prime rate. The prime rate remains at 4.45%.

Today's announcement carries two messages at once. On one hand, Canada's economy is genuinely recovering and growing. On the other hand, trade uncertainty and elevated energy prices are creating new risks that the Bank is watching carefully. This is not a straightforward picture, and it is exactly the kind of environment where having a clear mortgage strategy matters most.

Whether you are renewing, purchasing, or simply trying to understand what is ahead, now is a good time to have a conversation. The next rate decision is only weeks away, and the landscape could look different by then.

The next scheduled rate announcement is October 28, 2026 , at which point a new Monetary Policy Report will also be released.

Every borrower's situation is unique. If you have questions about how today's announcement affects your mortgage, reach out. We would love to help you navigate your options.

Information sourced from the Bank of Canada's official press release dated September 2, 2026.

LISA MANWARING

MORTGAGE EXPERT

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